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For your diary May 31st/4th June 2021

 For your diary

Monday May 31st

China Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI

New Zealand Final ANZ Business Confidence

Tuesday June 1st

Japan Manufacturing PMI

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

RBA Rate Statement & Cash Rate

EU Final Manufacturing PMI

UK Final Manufacturing PMI

EU Unemployment Rate

OPEC-JMMC Meetings

Canada GDP m/m

Canada Manufacturing PMI

US ISM Manufacturing PMI

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

Wednesday June 2nd

Australia GDP q/q

RBA Deputy Gov Debelle Speaks

US Beige Book

Thursday June 3rd

Australia Retail Sales m/m

China Caixin Services PMI

EU Final Services PMI

UK Final Services PMI

US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

US ISM Services PMI

US Crude Oil Inventories

Friday June 4th

SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks

RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks

G7 Meetings

Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Canada Unemployment Rate & Employment change

US labour market report

Canada Ivey PMI

US Factory Orders m/m

GOLD and USDCAD

 Gold

Gold hit its highest level since January 2021 at the start of last week thanks to the dip in the US dollar. Since then, the dollar has recovered a little and put some pressure on gold but the precious metal’s uptrend since April is still in play.

While gold holds above the simple moving averages, the broader bullish move is likely to continue. A break above the recent high of $1,912 should see it target $1,927. The market has been drifting lower recently and a move back through $1,882 might put $1,872 in sights.

The MACD indicator is still in negative territory which suggests the momentum is with the bears but selling pressure has waned so an upswing in price could be afoot. The RSI is in the middle of the range which suggests there is no strong bias in either direction with respect to price action.

USDCAD

A busy week ahead for Canadian dollar traders with many economic events taking its toll on the ‘loonie’ – especially the OPEC+’s monthly meeting on June 1 which will also affect oil prices.

Technically, the USDCAD extended its consolidation phase around the crucial 2017 lows of 1.2060 for the third consecutive week, increasing speculation that the bears are losing the fight and the bulls could soon take charge. The positive slope in the RSI and the Stochastics, which are running away from oversold territories, and the upside reversal in the MACD suggest that downside risks are fading.

The 20-day simple moving average is still an important resistance level at 1.2140 and unless it gives way, the bears could dominate, risking another negative extension towards the support levels of 1.1920. However, if the bulls were able to defeat the 20-day SMA, the price could accelerate towards the 1.2265 – 1.2300 zone.

What you need to know on Monday, May 24 2021

 What you need to know on Monday, May 24 2021:

The greenback recovered on Friday, ending the week mixed across the FX board.

The American appreciated following upbeat US data and comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting a sooner rather than later discussion on tapering amid signs of heating inflation. On Friday, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said that he is worried about inflation getting entrenched, while Philadelphia Fed Patrick Harker noted that the Fed should start discussing tightening. Also, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan reiterated that they are seeing a lot of uncertainty about inflation.

The EUR/USD pair settled at 1.2180, while GBP/USD finished the week at 1.4145, both up against the greenback. AUD/USD posted modest weekly losses, holding above 0.7700 but unable to rally despite soaring gold prices. The bright metal settled at $ 1,881.30 a troy ounce after hitting 1,889.96 mid-week.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he remains confident the kingdom will continue moving toward full reopening by the end of June, despite the rapid increase of the coronavirus Indian strain. The number of cases of the new variant has more than doubled in a week and may become the dominant strain. Concerns that it may delay opening have put a cap on GBP demand. The UK won’t publish relevant macroeconomic data on Monday.

The Canadian dollar posted modest gains against the greenback, despite oil prices edged lower weekly basis. WTI settled at $ 63.83 a barrel. USD/CAD held near multi-year lows amid encouraging local data.

Wall Street struggled to post gains, despite reports indicating economic progress, as the preliminary May Markit PMIs came in much better than anticipated. Only the DJIA was able to post gains. Meanwhile, US government bond yields held at the lower end of their weekly range. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note settled at 1.62%.

The coronavirus crisis keeps receding in Europe and the US as summer arrives in the northern hemisphere while the immunization campaign continues. The focus is on Latin America and India, where the pandemic is still hitting hard. Developed countries are planning donating vaccines to troubled nations from around the world.

Cryptos collapsed over the weekend, with BTC/USD falling toward $ 33,000 with my projected target of $16000.

Products to Watch 24th May - 28th May 2021

 UT100 (NASDAQ 100)

Investors will be watching the Nasdaq very closely this week. Remember that tech stocks are highly valued and despite decent Q2 earnings recent rallies in the Nasdaq have been very limited.

Technically, the Nasdaq is moving between the boundaries of a bullish channel on the weekly chart, and it succeeded in maintaining the lower boundary after testing it last week near the 12900 levels. If the index was able to maintain this level, the index could extend its gains and test the highs of 14066 levels. If the index was able to extend its rise and breach that level, it could reach the levels of 14750 levels.

If the index falls below the support level of 12900, this may contribute to an extension of the decline to the levels of 12200. A breakthrough beyond this level could indicate a change in the long-term direction towards the downside. Therefore, stability above the mentioned support is crucial for the index trend bias.

Gold

Gold has been volatile to the upside last week, especially after the Fed hints of policy tapering as the XAUUSD has continued its upward momentum trading above its daily moving averages. The precious metal could continue its bullish bias this week as buyers could aim for the $1900. A breach beyond this hurdle, gold prices could reach the resistance level of $1911 before aiming towards $1960 area, late 2020 highs.

From the downside, failure to defeat the $1900 level could push back prices to consolidate in the range between the $1875 and $1890 area. The main support level to watch is $1850.